Prof. Amir Yaron, Governor of the Bank of Israel, has stressed the gravity of Israel’s economic challenges, driven by the ongoing war and fiscal pressures, while calling on the government to act swiftly to mitigate long-term damage during his press conference today.
Yaron reiterated the Bank of Israel’s commitment to managing inflation, warning that if inflationary pressures persist, further interest rate increases may be necessary. The central bank currently anticipates inflation to fall within its target range of 1-3%, though this could take until the second half of 2025. However, uncertainty looms large, with concerns that inflation could become more entrenched due to the war and other factors, forcing the bank to take stronger action.
Yaron’s forecasts paint a less-than-optimistic picture. The conflict’s continuation, coupled with rising defense expenditures and delays in securing U.S. aid, has strained the economy. This has led to an upward revision in the projected deficit for 2023, now expected to reach 7.2%—higher than previous estimates. Similarly, inflation is expected to remain elevated, with hopes of reaching 2.8% by mid-2024 tempered by growing uncertainties.
Yaron did not shy away from addressing government shortcomings. He pointed to delays in budget approval and political manoeuvring as significant obstacles. In his view, the government’s failure to make necessary fiscal adjustments – especially in reallocating funds toward sectors that promote growth, such as increasing workforce participation among Arab women and ultra-Orthodox men – is exacerbating economic challenges. Though Yaron praised Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s initial efforts, he stressed that more comprehensive and permanent adjustments are needed to address the growing fiscal demands, particularly as defence spending continues to rise.
While the Bank of Israel’s official statements have been measured, Yaron’s direct remarks during the press conference were more pointed. He emphasized the importance of broad-based fiscal adjustments, urging the government to prioritize growth-supporting expenditures while eliminating unnecessary ministries and programs.
Yaron’s message to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Smotrich, and other government officials is clear: the window to act is closing. The economy faces significant risks, including the ongoing conflict, the delay in U.S. aid, and the increased need for support for evacuated northern residents. These pressures require immediate and decisive action to prevent further deterioration. While Yaron stopped short of painting an apocalyptic picture, his reference to the “ship of Israel” heading towards a crisis, akin to the Titanic, underscored the urgency of the situation.
Moreover, Yaron advised the government to heed the warnings of international credit rating agencies like Moody’s, which have expressed concerns over geopolitical risks and the failure to pass a budget. Rather than dismiss these warnings, Yaron argued that the government should take them seriously to preserve Israel’s economic standing in global markets.
Image credit: Bank of Israel Governor Amir Yaron (Noam Revkin Fenton, Flash90)
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