In a new round of escalating rhetoric, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Israel on Tuesday “not to test Iran’s resolve” as tensions between the two nations rise. Speaking at a conference in Tehran titled “Al-Aqsa Flood; The Beginning of Nasrallah,” Araghchi cautioned that any Israeli attack on Iran would provoke a severe and overwhelming response.

“We tell the Zionist regime not to test Iran’s resolve, as any attack on Iran will be met with an even stronger response than before,” Araghchi stated. The event marked the anniversary of the October 7 massacre by Hamas, a Palestinian terrorist group backed by Iran, which referenced the earlier attack in its name, “Al-Aqsa Flood.” The conference also paid homage to Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli airstrike last month.

Notably, Israel has not directly attacked Iran, despite Iranian claims of Israeli aggression. It was Iranian missile salvo that targeted Israel, forcing its population into bomb shelters. Only one fatality occurred, a Palestinian man killed by falling debris in the West Bank. Nevertheless, Iran’s aggressive tone highlights its imperialist ambitions, using proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah to extend influence across the region while casting itself as the victim of external aggression.

Israel has vowed to retaliate for the missile attack, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant stating, “Whoever attacks us will be hurt and will pay a price. Our attack will be deadly, precise, and above all surprising.” Israeli leaders are reportedly considering targeting Iran’s oil or nuclear facilities in their response.

However, the looming question of oil supply is playing a key role in the geopolitical calculus. Iran’s threats have focused not only on Israel but also on the Gulf Arab states, warning them not to allow Israel to use their airspace or military bases. Yet, Tehran’s warnings also ring hollow in some quarters, as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), largely controlled by Saudi Arabia, has sufficient spare capacity to cover any disruption in Iranian oil output caused by Israeli strikes.

While Iran has not directly threatened Gulf oil facilities, its historical posturing against “Israel supporters” suggests that broader regional escalation remains a possibility. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia, which has had a fragile political rapprochement with Tehran, remain wary of Iranian strikes on their oil infrastructure. The 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq refinery—an incident that briefly knocked out more than 5% of global oil production—still looms large.

The U.S. and Israel’s shared concern centres not only on Iran’s provocations but also on the potential ripple effects in global oil markets. While OPEC can mitigate the impact of any disruption in Iranian oil production, the U.S. remains cautious about a spike in oil prices, which could impact global economies. This concern has led to calls from the Biden administration for Israel to show restraint, despite recognizing Israel’s right to defend itself.

Analysts argue that American caution is rooted more in economic fears than military risk, as any significant rise in oil prices could strain U.S. domestic markets. Israel’s “rightful response” to Iran, as many Israeli officials call it, may be curbed by these broader economic considerations. Meanwhile, Iran continues to flex its influence in the region, using both its military assets and oil leverage, all while positioning itself as a regional power unafraid of international confrontation.

Image credit: Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi (Majid Asgaripour via REUTERS)